Passing Vs Running on First Down
- John Garcia
- Aug 30, 2021
- 2 min read
Updated: Feb 25, 2023
A successful first down play can mean the difference between having to punt the ball or securing another first down to keep the drive alive. Offensive coordinators must pick a play they feel will set the team up best to avoid a potential third or fourth down attempt. NFL.com tracked the percentage that a first down play resulted in a reception or a rush for each team along with the amount of their third down attempts during the 2020 season.
The chart below shows a side-by-side visual of each team's first down reception percentage and their first down rush percentage compared to their third down attempts for the 2020 season. On the side with the first down reception percentage we see that their is a negative correlation between first down reception percentage and third down attempts. This tells us that a higher percentage of first down receptions leads to less third down attempts for a team. On the other hand, there does not appear to be a correlation between first down rush percentage and third down attempts. This is likely the case because a team can run the ball a lot on first down, however, if they are only getting one or two yards each time then the team will likely face a lot of third down attempts trying to pick up the first down. When a team passes the ball and gets a reception on first down they likely get a minimum of four or five yards on the play which sets them up nicely to pick up the first down without needing a third down attempt.
The chart above also shows there's no correlation between win percentage and either third down attempts, first down reception percentage, or first down rush percentage. This means that having fewer third down attempts, or a higher first down reception percentage or first down rush percentage leads to better team success. A good example of this is the Pittsburgh Steelers who finished the 2020 season with a 12-4 record and made the playoffs, but had the highest third down attempts, and one of the lowest first down reception percentages and first down rush percentages. This is because the Steelers had an elite defense that masked some of the team's offensive struggles. The defensive side of the ball can explain why looking at just offensive statistics does not provide a full picture of a team's overall season performance.
To have a successful offense such as the Chiefs, Bills, or Packers a team usually needs fewer third down attempts while also being one of the highest in first down reception percentage and first down rush percentage. This keeps defenses on their toes since they have a tough time predicting what play the offense plans to run which opens the field up for the offense. Therefore, a balance is needed between running and passing the ball on first down to maximize a team's offensive success.
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